Here's the 00z Euro 850mb map at 240 hours (silly enough in itself) for Thursday, April 5th. I highlighted the freezing line at 850mb in red. This shows where the atmosphere would be capable of producing snow. That I can agree with, but people are forgetting we will be in early April, not early February. I'm going to go through every reason why snow is not going to happen south of the mason dixon line.
1) Besides how warm it has been over the past month, it is going to be very warm leading up to this storm as well! The southeast ridge is going to be well Monday(April 2nd) and Tuesday (April 3rd), as you can see in the 00z Euro below. Temperatures will likely reach at least 70, if not 80 for much of Virginia, and even up to near the Mason Dixon line. Sure, strong coastal storms can produce their own cold air. But with having none in place, and it being early Spring, it's not going to happen.
2) Ok, I showed the 850 mb temperatures at the beginning of this blog that showed the atmosphere was cold enough to produce snow. So how about the surface temperatures? Here are the 00z Euro surface temperatures for the same hour as the 850mb map.. Cold air in the upper levels is great, but when the surface is this warm, youre only getting a plain, cold rain.
3) Final reason, as I sorta hinted at earlier, this is the Euro at 240 hours. I remember a few days ago being very against the people who were hinting at snow on April fools. Look what happened to that threat...poof. I think the euro is a bit extreme in what its even showing, and that the gfs seems to be more aligned in my thinking (which is just a moderate low tracking to our north, providing us with showers from its trailing cold front). Even if I'm wrong about that, its rain for us either way..end of discussion. -hv