Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Just not our luck

I made this blog with the intentions of only blogging when major snowstorms were on the way, during the winter at least.  It is now mid-January, and we are repeatedly seeing rainstorm after rainstorm, with the exception of a few snowy (I'm being very generous even using that word) clippers and back-end-change-over to quick shots of snow.  With that being said, simply the chance of seeing snow, flurries even, is now blog worthy material.  Through Saturday, there will be two chances for areas to see snow.  With both systems, the farther north, west and higher in elevation you go, the better your chances.  The first system will not be a big deal at all.
A clipper will swing from the Great Lakes into northern New England late Thursday night into early Friday.  The far northern portions of VA, pretty much everyone who saw flurries earlier this morning, will have the chance of seeing a few more with this.  But like I said, this is about as insignificant as it gets.  A bigger area of low pressure will swing through the Ohio valley and through the Virginias late Friday into Saturday.  Here are the temperatures Saturday morning at 1 am.
Cold air damming will keep much of the northern Shenandoah Valley at or below freezing as the precipitation works its way into the area.  Below is the Precipitation forecast for the same time.
There should be enough overruning moisture for areas of northern VA to start out as a period of wintry mix overnight, all though it will be very light.  Right now, the low is expected to track right through West VA into northern VA during the day Saturday, allowing temperatures to rise and change over all of VA to plain rain as the bulk of the precipitation moves in.  The farther south the low goes, the longer the cold air will be able to remain in place.  Right now I'm thinking all the models are showing a great deal of agreement on the track, therefore I'm not expecting to even make a map for any accumulation.  If this low was to track 50-100 miles farther south, we would be in business.  In conclusion, it seems we can't even take seeing snow for granted this year.  I still think our times coming.  -HV

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